Exit polls from Israel’s general election on Tuesday revealed a tight and inconclusive race between long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, leaving neither bloc with a clear path to a governing majority. Voter turnout reached 77.7 percent—the highest in more than two decades and roughly seven percentage points above the 2022 figure—underscoring the intensity of a contest widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and the subsequent wars.
Major Israeli television networks projected Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud-led bloc and Eisenkot’s opposition alliance, centered on his Yashar party, in a near dead heat. Channels 12 and 13 and public broadcaster Kan 11 generally showed the two camps level or with Eisenkot holding a narrow edge, while none of the mainstream projections awarded either side the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Likud was consistently projected as the largest single party, with around 24–25 seats, followed closely by Yashar. Far-right parties allied with Netanyahu, including those led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, were forecast to hold a combined roughly 13 seats. Arab parties recorded significant gains and were projected at 17–18 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers in any coalition negotiations.
Eisenkot, speaking to supporters in Tel Aviv, declared that the results reflected a lack of confidence in Netanyahu and called on the prime minister to step aside. Netanyahu’s camp, by contrast, sought to frame the outcome as support for continued right-wing governance. Partial official counts released early Wednesday showed Netanyahu’s bloc edging ahead in some tallies, though still short of a majority, confirming that definitive results and any path to government formation would take time. Analysts noted that coalition bargaining could stretch for weeks, with Netanyahu potentially remaining as caretaker in the interim.
Financial markets reacted sharply to the political uncertainty. The Tel Aviv 125 stock index dropped more than 3 percent in early Wednesday trading—among its steepest one-day declines in months—as investors priced in the risk of prolonged stalemate, delayed policy decisions, and potential instability. Banking, insurance, and construction shares led the sell-off, while the shekel weakened against the dollar. The market had closed higher the previous day amid high turnout that some traders had interpreted as favorable to political change; the inconclusive exit polls reversed that optimism.
The election marked Israel’s first national vote since the trauma of October 7 and the multi-front conflicts that followed. High participation, including strong turnout among Arab Israeli communities and soldiers, highlighted deep public engagement. With neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot securing a straightforward mandate, the outcome now hinges on negotiations, the role of Arab parties, and whether smaller factions can be brought into a workable coalition. Final certified results are expected in the coming days, after which President Isaac Herzog will formally task a candidate with forming a government. Until then, markets and the public face continued uncertainty over the direction of Israeli politics.