Spot gold and silver are staging a modest recovery after last week’s 3% and 6% declines respectively, as reports of Iran’s submission of a new proposal to Washington via Pakistani mediators has offered a tentative note of optimism, though Trump’s weekend cancellation of the planned envoy visit to Pakistan signals that a resolution remains distant. Simultaneously, bullion faces headwinds from cautious monetary policy expectations. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing revealed an implicit hawkish tilt in his remarks on a new inflation framework and central bank independence, tempering expectations for near-term rate cuts.
Traders remain guarded ahead of a dense macro calendar, including U.S. GDP, PCE inflation, ISM Manufacturing, and policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Any hawkish surprises could exert additional pressure on precious metals. Having said that, gold and silver remain tied to the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and both metals will stay highly volatile as they navigate the competing forces of energy-driven inflation risk and shifting monetary policy expectations.
Crude oil extends gains on Monday, with WTI and Brent trading above $96/bbl and $108/bbl respectively, building on last week’s impressive 13% and 16% advances, as markets continue to digest a volatile mix of recurring diplomatic friction and conflicting signals surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Prices witnessed some pullback earlier in the session following reports that Iran has submitted a new proposal to the U.S. via Pakistani mediators, calling for a ceasefire extension and the lifting of the maritime blockade before nuclear talks resume. The development arrives against a backdrop of ongoing diplomatic fragility, underscored by Trump’s decision to cancel a planned envoy visit to Pakistan, signalling to investors that U.S. conditions for renewed high-level talks have not yet been met. This recurring pattern, where optimism is quickly tempered by conflicting signals, continues to define the current geopolitical landscape.
Last week’s volatility was partly shaped by Friday’s session, when prices slipped from intraweek highs after reports emerged that Iranian Foreign Minister was expected in Islamabad for discussions with Pakistani mediators on a potential second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations. While current tensions sustain upward pressure and helped process rebound from session lows, any credible confirmation that the Strait is reopening would likely trigger a sharp correction. As long as Washington and Tehran continue to trade conflicting signals, oil prices will stay highly sensitive to any new developments and prone to sharp price swings in either direction.
