Amit Shah’s Cataclysmic Misreading of Bihar’s Caste-Alliance Labyrinth Could Jeopardise BJP’s Electoral Ambition
By Suresh Unnithan
In the high-stakes cauldron of Bihar’s 2025 assembly elections, where caste loyalties, fragile alliances, and raw political survival collide, Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s mid-October gambit has kindled a firestorm that could consume the BJP’s dreams of dominance. What began as a calculated dodge to preserve flexibility has unraveled into a self-inflicted wound, exposing Shah’s fatal underestimation of Bihar’s intricate caste-coalition maze—and potentially derailing the NDA’s electoral juggernaut.
The premeditated statement began on October 16, 2025, during an Aaj Tak interview in Patna, where Shah evaded direct commitment to Nitish Kumar by stating that for now the NDA was contesting under Nitish Kumar’s leadership, but after the elections all allies and elected MLAs would sit and decide the next chief minister. The next day, October 17, he doubled down on TV, explaining that elected MLAs of coalition partners would first elect their party leaders, who would then decide who heads the government, citing 2020, where BJP conceded despite more seats, as respect for seniority while implying no such obligation now. This was pre-poll signalling at its most reckless, with nominations for Phase 1 closing October 17 and campaigning in full frenzy amid fragile alliances and RJD-Congress seat-sharing deadlocks. Shah’s casual deferral, asking who he was to make him CM since MLAs would decide, wasn’t procedural clarity but a deliberate pre-emptive strike revealing months of internal BJP contingency planning to install a pliable loyalist like Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary post-victory. It reflected profound arrogance in assuming BJP’s Modi magic, projected 150-plus seats, and anti-RJD sentiment could steamroll Bihar’s multipolar dynamics without accommodating a partner who delivered 43 seats in 2020.
NDA partners amplified the betrayal, as Chirag Paswan of LJP-Ram Vilas endorsed on October 18 in Hajipur that this was absolutely correct as a democratic process where no single individual decides. Most damaging was JD(U) national president Rajiv Ranjan Singh, known as Lallan Singh and Nitish’s closest aide, who on October 19 in Munger told party workers that what Amit Shah said was NDA tradition, noting that in 2020 MLAs chose Nitish and the same would happen this time with nothing new in it. Within JD(U), this was heresy, and cadres in Nalanda, Jehanabad, and Patna fumed privately, and in certain instances publicly, that their own people were weakening him, while in Muzaffarpur and Darbhanga JD(U) workers quietly removed BJP banners from joint offices, downplayed Modi posters, and skipped coordination meetings in a silent rebellion signalling fraying grassroots ties.
The Mahagathbandhan struck with surgical precision, framing Shah’s words not as process but as personal humiliation of Bihar’s sushasan babu. Tejashwi Yadav, Mahagathbandhan CM face, declared on October 23 in Madhubani that Amit Shah spilled the beans, saying MLAs would decide post-election, which proved BJP wanted to use Nitish and then throw him post-poll, insisting Bihar wouldn’t tolerate this betrayal. Rahul Gandhi, campaigning in Katihar on October 26, appealed directly to Nitish loyalists that BJP was insulting their leader by keeping him for show during elections and then tossing him away, urging that if they wanted respect for Nitish ji they should vote Mahagathbandhan. Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera quipped in Patna on October 24 that Nitish nahi banenge CM since Amit Shah made it clear, revealing BJP’s true face to use Nitish and then reject. RJD social media cells flooded WhatsApp and X with montages of Shah’s evasion followed by Chirag’s nod and Lallan’s echo, captioned that even allies betray Nitish and the decision was yours. The emotional resonance was devastating among EBCs, Koeris, Mahadalits, and upper castes, groups scarred by Nitish’s flip-flops but hypersensitive to instability signals.
Phase 1 on November 6 across 121 seats in 18 districts saw record 64.66 percent turnout, the highest in Bihar history, skewed toward women, youth, and returning migrants as Prashant Kishor’s mobilized X factor against NDA fatigue. In JD(U)-vacated seats in Seemanchal such as Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnea, and Araria, and north Bihar, 5–8 percent Nitish vote swung to RJD not from Tejashwi love but anti-BJP anger, with RJD margins swelling 5–7 percent over 2020 benchmarks. BJP trailed in 20–25 held seats, especially upper-caste Bhagalpur where anti-Nitish whispers boomeranged into pro-RJD consolidation, and anecdotal ground reports showed JD(U) workers in non-contested areas urging voters to punish BJP betrayal by directing EBCs toward RJD or abstention. Shah’s November 7 post-Phase 1 reiteration hours after polls closed only confirmed the pre-poll damage, reinforcing perceptions of a long-rumored plot.
Shah’s triple strategic blindness began with overconfidence in solo BJP dominance, as internal surveys projected 150-plus NDA seats banking on Modi rallies and anti-RJD sentiment yet ignored coalition arithmetic where JD(U) contesting only 45 seats down from 115 in 2020 meant any vote bleed cascaded, unlike 2020’s symbiotic 125 in a lopsided 2025 contest with BJP at around 140 seats making JD(U) erosion fatal. Arrogance in ally management followed Shah’s history of ditching Shiv Sena in Maharashtra 2019 and PDP in J&K 2018, which thrives in bipolar contests but not Bihar demanding finesse in a caste labyrinth where JD(U) controls EBCs over 30 percent votes and non-Yadav OBCs, with signaling dominance mid-campaign handing rivals the unifying cry to save Nitish from BJP’s betrayal. Gross miscalculation of Nitish’s leverage came last, as at 74 Nitish’s political oxygen is indispensability, and Shah’s pre-poll nudge after publicly propping him in October 2025 meetings while briefing BJP cadres on contingencies pushed him into survival mode, with JD(U) insiders confirming backchannel RJD talks for a post-poll grand realignment where Nitish’s 40–50 seats make him kingmaker in Mahagathbandhan 2.0 securing his CM chair, mirroring 2022’s flip-flop only now with Shah gifting the pretext.
Modi’s panicked damage control started on November 7 as he assumed direct command of Phase 2 on November 11 across 122 seats, flooding Aurangabad, Gaya, and Sasaram with rallies while Nitish’s face was plastered on posters even in BJP district offices as an afterthought. Shah’s October 29 U-turn in Sasaram that Bihar ka CM Nitish Kumar hi rahenge was mocked on X by @pushpaayadav noting days ago MLAs would decide but today Nitish would remain as damage control or fear with #BiharElections2025. But trust was shattered, JD(U) cadres boycotted joint events in Patna and Muzaffarpur, and Tejashwi’s roadshows drew record crowds blending job promises with anti-BJP barbs, meaning Modi’s charisma may hold core pockets but recapturing alienated JD(U) voters requires more than banners and demands the cohesion Shah demolished.
The converging storm sees Nitish’s imminent pivot with whispers from JD(U) circles confirming exploratory talks with Tejashwi, where a post-November 14 defection would leverage 40–50 seats against BJP’s projected 80–90 to form a stable opposition bloc. Congress resurgence comes with contesting 40 seats where Rahul’s aggressive minority outreach and RJD-ceded winnable turf in Seemanchal and Magadh could yield 10–15 seats, as in Begusarai Tariq Anwar challenges BJP’s incumbent reviving Congress as Mahagathbandhan anchor. Prashant Kishor’s disruptor edge has Jan Suraaj polling 15–18 percent statewide splitting BJP’s upper-caste and urban vote 8–10 percent in Patna Sahib, Purnea, and Bhagalpur, with his anti-corruption pro-jobs pitch targeting returning migrants explaining Phase 1’s turnout surge, even forcing Modi to address Bihar’s bonded labor to dynasties as a direct riposte to PK.
Amit Shah’s pre-poll opacity meant to buy post-poll flexibility became electoral harakiri endorsed by Chirag and Lallan, weaponized by Tejashwi-Rahul, and internalized as insult by Nitish’s cadre, fracturing NDA unity, energizing rivals, and exposing BJP’s eastern flank. If the alliance falls below 120 seats on November 14, expect Nitish’s defection, Congress-fueled opposition surge, Kishor’s emergence as Bihar’s new kingmaker, and BJP reduced to a minority government or opposition. Modi’s mastery may salvage scraps, but Shah’s overreach born of past glories and blind to Bihar’s alliance fragility has ended the era of unchallenged BJP dominance in the east. In politics as in chess, arrogant pawns invite checkmate, and for Shah this is the costliest move of his career as Bihar, ever the graveyard of hubris, delivers its verdict soon.
