Suresh Unnithan
Thiruvananthapuram: With the smooth passage of the Waqf Bill2025 in both the Houses of Parliament, the ruling BJP has cemented supremacy over NDA partners, particularly Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. Against hectic speculations, the Bill was passed in the lower house on Wednesday with288 votes in favour and 232 against, and in the Rajya Sabha on Thursday with128 votes in favour and 95 against.
Even the BJP baiters were sure that the saffron party would manage the Bill in both the Houses, for there was no scope of its influential partners, Naidu and Nitish- the two prominent secular faces of the NDA “dilute their loyalty” and ditch their Big Brother. Though certain political pundits and youtubers were professing the secular leaders to oppose the Waqf Bill, for they “would not like to upset the community that considers both the leaders their guardian angels”. But their empleomania led to “betray” their committed vote bank, to retain power and position, believes political analysts.
The BJP is smart enough to fathom the weakness of the two “snollygosters” and has been designing to condense the electoral dominance of both the satraps in their region by alienating their trusted vote bank-Muslims. With their unconditional support to the Waqf Bill both the leaders, once seen as the messiah of minorities, are now seen as “quislings.”
More than Naidu, the Bill has the potential to damage the political prospects of Nitish Kumar and his JDU. In Bihar, protesting JDU’s support to the Bill, that is seen as anti-Muslim, three prominent Muslim leaders—Mohammad Qasim Ansari, Mohammad Shahnawaz Malik, and Mohammad TabrezSiddiqui— quit the party, loudly indicating intense unrest within its minority base.
If the Muslim votes get consolidated against Nitish Kumar, the going will get tough for the “secularist” leader. Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats, with a Muslim population of about 17%(2011 Census). Muslims are concentrated in the Seemanchal region (e.g. Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia) and parts of north Bihar. Based on 2011 data and electoral studies over 10 Lok Sabha constituencies have sizable Muslim that could effectively tilt the result in the way they want. Kishanganj has Over 67%Muslims, Katihar has Around 40–45%, Araria has Approximately 40% and Purnia has over 40%.muslim electorate. Other seats like Darbhanga (~20–25%) and Madhubani (~20%) approach the threshold.
Coming to the Vidhan Sabha part; Bihar’s 243 Assembly seats.More than 30 Assembly constituencies have over 30% Muslim voters. Seemanchal districts alone (Kishanganj,Araria, Purnia, Katihar) have multiple seats with high Muslim populations: Kishanganj District: Seats like Kishanganj (~70%), Thakurganj (~50%), and Bahadurganj (~60%).In Araria district, Araria has about 40% voters, Jokihat has over 50%. In Purnia district, Purnia seat has 35% Muslim electorate and Amour has nearly 60%. In Katihar district, Katihar has 40% and Barsoi has around 50% muslim voters. Beyond Seemanchal, seats in Darbhanga, Siwan, and East Champaran (e.g., Kesaria,~25–30%) add to the tally.
Regarding Chandra Babau, Muslims constitute approximately 9.56%of Andhra Pradesh’s population. The Muslim vote becomes decisive when elections are polarized or when margins are narrow.” Muslim groups, including the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB), have strongly opposed the bill, urging Naidu and other NDA allies like Nitish Kumar to reject it. In Andhra Pradesh, this discontent was evident when Muslim organizations boycotted Naidu’s Iftar event in March this year, indicating visible distrust. If this sentiment persists, it could consolidate Muslim votes against TDP in favour of YSRCP, which opposed the bill and has accused Naidu of betraying minorities.”
According To a senior journalist “Naidu has cultivated a secular image, promising Muslim Welfare measures like protecting Waqf properties and increasing imam honorariums. His support for the bill might be seen as a contradiction, potentially eroding trust among Muslim voters who prioritize religious autonomy.” By and large the feeling is Naidu’s support for the Waqf Bill risks alienating majority Muslim voters, potentially “costing him in urban and minority-dominated areas in next elections.”
With the Bill, the ruling BJP emerged victorious on three counts. 1. The party proved nonchalant within the NDA, though it does not have its own majority and is dependent on the allies to run the government. 2. It could cleverly alienate the muslim support from its allies and weaken them politically. 3. The Bill could polarise the hardcore Hindu electorate in favour of the party, for the non-liberal Hindus were opposed to the”extra favouritism” shown by the Congress and secular parties.
A veteran scribe points out, “By pushing the (Waqf) Bill through with allied support, the BJP reinforces its dominance within the NDA, signaling that coalition partners must align with its agenda. This strengthens its narrative of decisive governance, appealing to its core voters.” It is evident Waqf Bill was a calculated ploy to entwine the two titans of the ruling NDA – Chnadrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. The BJP, specialised in political manoeuvring, through the Bill could weaken the minority sympathy to the two regional satraps in a single stroke.
