Kotak Securities – Gold and Crude quote by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

 COMEX gold pushed above $4,760/oz and silver crossed $80/oz on Thursday, extending gains for a third straight session amid reports that the US and Iran have reached an understanding on gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the most concrete diplomatic development since the war began. The report accelerated drop in oil prices and bond yields as hopes of a US-Iran deal eased inflation expectations, while the dollar also retreated to pre-war levels, a combination that continues to remove the inflation overhang that had capped bullion since late February. On the macro front, softer-than-expected ADP payroll data reinforced signs of a cooling US labour market. If Friday’s official jobs report confirms the slowdown, expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could strengthen further, providing an additional boost to non-yielding assets like gold and silver. With both geopolitical and macroeconomic factors now moving in favour of bullion, precious metals are receiving support from multiple fronts simultaneously.

Brent crude extended losses to trade near $98/bbl and WTI fell toward $92/bbl, both down around 3% on Thursday, after reports saying agreements have been reached on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with stranded ships expected to be released in the coming hours. The report marks a significant escalation in diplomatic progress beyond the MOU framework that had already driven both benchmarks down more than 7% on Wednesday. With Brent now trading nearly $28 below last week’s peak, the war premium is unwinding rapidly. Markets will now watch closely for formal confirmation from Washington and Tehran, as well as the pace at which shipping flows actually normalize, a process that typically takes several weeks even after a formal agreement is reached.