By Manish Dixit
Bhopal: By-polls in 28 seats of Madhya Pradesh are turning out to be a mini-Assembly election. Both ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress are making all out efforts to fetch maximum seats but these elections are going to be an acid test for Gwalior scion Jyotiraditya Scindia, who is primarily responsible these elections.
In fact, these bypolls were necessitated after Scindia along with his loyalists shifted loyalty to the BJP, leading to the downfall of the Kamal Nath-led Congress government in the state in March this year.
For Scindia, these bypolls are no less than a battle of prestige. With the BJP giving tickets to the rebels MLAs loyal to him, the party would be expecting him to win as many as seats as possible, and this will eventually decide Scindia’s clout within the BJP. If Scindia’s loyalists fail to deliver in the bypolls, he could find himself get marginalised in his new party. In nutshell his future role in the new party would be on the outcome of these by-elections.
Of the 28 assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh, 22 candidates are Scindia loyalists. He has influence over 16 seats of Gwalior-Chambal division, that’s why his prestige is at stake. He is aggressively campaigning to ensure victory of his loyalists but the bitter reality is that at many constituencies Scindia’s supporters are not getting desired support from BJP leaders, particularly those who were defeated in previous assembly election by Congress candidates.
Also at stake will be the political fortunes of a number of leaders, including Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, former chief ministers Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh, Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar.
Scindia‘s entry into the BJP has complicated the power balance within the party in the bypoll battleground. Tomar, whom many consider as an alternative to Chouhan, too has his prestige at stake in the bypolls.
For 74-year-old Kamal Nath, this might be the last chance to become the chief minister of Madhya Pradesh as he will around 77 when the state goes to polls again and it is quite possible that the Congress then looks for a younger face as its CM face.
It goes without saying that the BJP wants to alleviate its dependence on others to ensure a stable government for which it needs to win at least nine out of 28 seats, which will take it past the half-way mark on its own. However, the BJP would be looking forward to win as many seats as possible to confirm a safe position.
Currently, the BJP has 107 seats in the 230-member Assembly and rules the state with the support of four Independents, two BSP MLAs and one suspended Samajwadi Party MLA.
On the other hand, the Congress hold 88 seats in the state assembly and would need to win all the 28 seats go cross the halfway back.
However, if the Congress manages to win 20-21 seats, it could try to put pressure on the Independents and BSP MLAs to switch sides. The BSP has already said that it will appear as the “kingmaker” in the bypolls, indicating that it is not averse to switching sides.
Alongside the BJP and the Congress, BSP has also fielded candidates on almost all the seats going for by-elections.
Is Scindia sidelined in BJP?
The BJP has released a list of 30-star campaigners, in which Rajya Sabha MP Jyotiraditya Scindia is only at number 10 and his pictures are also missing from the BJP digital chariots and posters. In the poster, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and BJP State President VD Sharma have been kept on one side and BJP President JP Nadda and PM Modi on the other side. The chariot features LED, sound and video and will campaign in all 28 seats of the state.
Sources say Scindia is upset with the BJP about these two things and not only that, he conspicuously missing for a few days and started monitoring elections from his home in Delhi. After his move, there was a growing concern among his supporters about Scindia. Scindia has again started campaigning since the election is approaching fast.
Congress has targeted Scindia for being sidelined by the BJP. Congress spokesperson Narendra Saluja said that not a single supporter of Scindia was included in the list of BJP’s star campaigners, Scindia’s own name is at number 10 and now his picture is also missing from the BJP digital chariots. He said that when Scindia was in Congress, the party made him the chairman of the election campaign committee.
