From Suresh Unnithan
Chennai: The electoral encounter in the ensuing Assembly poll in Tamil Nadu, as usual, is precisely between the two Dravidian political parties-The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADM), the current ruling dispensation in the state and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the principal opposition party in the state assembly. But this time, with formidable BJP, the party in power at the Center, aligning with AIADMK the fight for political power in the Dravidian bastion has become exciting.
Poll to the sixteenth State legislative assembly is to be held on 6 April 2021 to elect members from 234 constituencies. The term of the previous Fifteenth Legislative Assembly will end on 24 May 2021. With the coalitions confirmed, candidates and constituencies announced, the high-voltage poll campaigns are in progress and manifestos embedded with host of freebies are circulated to placate the voters to retain Fort St George, the seat of power.
The recently published opinion polls give clear edge for the DMK-led UPA alliance over the AIADMK-BJP combine in the ensuing assembly polls. In fact, the clean sweep in Lok Sabha election 2019 has put the DMK far head of AIADM in terms of electoral prospects. Fortunate for the ruling party, the management of the pandemic has helped AIADMK to improve its stature in the state to some degree. Many non-partisan political observers approve the Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami a “better administrator” who could “manage corona crisis satisfactorily.” However, a recent survey by Ormax Media has said that just 48% of respondents in Tamil Nadu approved of the job done by Mr. Palaniswami which is one of the lowest in the country.
In the 2016 Assembly polls 2016 the ruling AIADMK had won 134 Seats with 41.8% vote share and opposition DMK bagged 98 Seats with 39.3% vote share. But in the 2019 Lok Sabah polls the electoral performance of the ruling AIADMK was abysmally poor. It had could win just one out of 39 Look Sabah sets whereas the DMK combine swept the rest 38 garnering 64 percent of the vote share. The AIADMK could mope up just 36 % of the total vote polled in the 2019 election, which was one of its worst electoral performances.
The prime area of strength for AIADMK that gave a define edge to the party against its political rival DMK was women voters. With respect to women electorates AIADMK was in most of the elections well head of DMK by a wide margin of 11%. “Women mostly voted for AIADMK, thanks to Jayalalithaa. She had the reputation of taking on the mighty and was adored as AMMA. The women in Tamil Nadu had a special affection to Jayalaithaa, thanks the special schemes she introduced in favor of the women. The present AIADMK is lacking a charismatic leader like her,” said, Bala Subramaniam, a vernacular journalist who has been covering politicsof Tamil Nadu for over four decades.
However BJP, which is on a winning spree in different elections, is harboring high hopes to conquer the Dravidian bastion riding on the back of a Dravidian Party, AIADMK. This time the saffron party, as an electoral partner to AIADMK, is sparing no efforts to establish its power in the southern state. They saffron party is contesting the lone Lok Sabha bye-poll – Kanyakumari and 25 Assembly seats in the company of AIADMK.
Many, even those from the AIADMK are skeptical if the association with the BJP helps AIADMK in the ensuing electoral battle. “BJP is largely seen as an upper caste Hindu party. AIADMK is basically a Dravidian party ideologically opposed to BJP’s Hindutwa. So there it is likely those ideologically attached to AIADMK is likely to be antagonistic to the party’s open alliance with the saffron brigade,” observes another senior journalist.
In 2019 Lok Sabha election the DMK was well ahead in 138 assembly segments and its ally Indian National congress in 49. The AIADMK had lead in 12 assembly seats and BJP in just one. So” it’s clear, the BJP which is contesting in 17 seats can only dream of ruling Tamil Nadu. Not just that, AIADMK is unlikely to gain anything electorally out of this alliance.”
Though there is no much public dislike against current chief minister E Palanisamy, his hardcore supporters were not in favour of aligning with BJP, for they fear “the association with BJP may alienate from AIADMK the backwards, religious minorities and also those believe in Dravidianism. This may considerably weaken the electoral prospects of the party. Moreover there is not even a single popular leader for the BJP. Party hoppers like Khushboo Sunder who has just migrated to BJP will not be of any electoral consequences.”
As per available data, in Tamil Nadu Backward Class constitutes 30% of the population. Most Backward Communities 20%, Scheduled Castes 18%, Scheduled Tribes 1% and General 31%.
Most of the opinion polls and electoral surveys points to an electoral upsurge in favour of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The alliance lead by DMK “is likely to sweep the Tamil Nadu assembly elections with a projected win of 158 seats, which is a growth of 60 seats over what it had won in 2016” the Times Now-C-Voter opinion poll has predicted. “The AIADM-led National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) tally may be reduced to 65 seats, a massive decline from the 2016 elections. The party had won 136 seats then.”
In fact the abrupt decision of tinsel star Rajnikant (who was about to launch a political party) to keep away from active politics has adversely impacted the poll prospects of AIADMK-BJP alliance. For, the tinsel star was seen a NDA supporter and that could electorally benefit the saffron coalition.
Moreover, the entry of erstwhile Tamil Super Star Kamal Haasan and his political formation Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) is also likely to injure the poll prospectus of AIADMK. Haasan and his party that contested in 2019 Lok Sabha Polls had garnered around 4% votes. “Since DMK is a cadre based party and has a fixed vote base. So in all possibility MNM is to eat into AIADMK votes and not the other way around.” says Reghu V P a senior journalist working in Chennai with a national daily for over quarter century.”
Tamil Nadu Assembly elections will be held in a single phase on April 6 and the counting of votes will be done on May 2. As many as 6, 28, 23,749 electors will choose candidates for the sixteenth Legislative Assembly in the state.
