From Our Foreign Correspondent
As the US-Israel war on Iran enters its 19th day on March 19, 2026, President Donald Trump’s bold promises of a swift victory proved an inflated balloon that busted midway. What began as a decisive strike to neutralize Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile threats has morphed into a grinding conflict costing American taxpayers upwards of $1 billion daily, eroding Trump’s “America First” credibility, and exposing a deepening rift with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Far from capturing Iranian oil reserves as some speculated, Trump envisioned the operation—dubbed “Epic Fury”—has inflicted disproportionate damage on the United States, even as Iran reels militarily. Netanyahu, facing domestic political headwinds, appears to have maneuvered Trump into a prolonged engagement that serves Israeli interests while saddling America with the bill.
The war erupted on February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes in a single day, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and decimating Iran’s air defenses, nuclear sites, and military leadership. Trump, who had resumed nuclear talks with Tehran earlier in his second term, authorized the campaign after intense lobbying from Netanyahu. Reports detail how the Israeli prime minister entered the Oval Office on February 11 determined to derail diplomacy and secure US backing for what he framed as an existential necessity. Trump, echoing past boasts of dominating Iran “in no time,” projected a four-to-six-week operation. “You’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion,” he assured early on. Yet, as strikes continue without a clear exit, Trump now pivots between declaring “we won” and warning of a longer fight, revealing the trap’s bite.
Netanyahu’s motivations were clear—and personal. Beset by opposition at home and long advocating regime pressure on Iran, he seized the moment to expand Israel’s regional domain while bolstering his position. Israeli strikes, including the controversial hit on the shared South Pars gas field, deliberately escalated tensions, prompting Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy hubs. Netanyahu has publicly celebrated the campaign as fulfilling a 40-year dream, but critics argue it prioritizes perpetual conflict over de-escalation. By eliminating Iranian moderates like Ali Larijani, Israel has hardened Tehran’s resolve, ensuring the war drags on. Trump aides now privately foresee a split: the US president seeks a quick off-ramp to avoid midterm backlash, while Netanyahu pushes for sustained pressure. Their once-“extraordinary” rapport, as Trump described it, now strains under differing endgames—Trump’s focus on degrading capabilities versus Netanyahu’s maximalist aims.
The human and economic toll on the US is staggering. Pentagon briefings to Congress reveal the first six days alone exceeded $11.3 billion, with cumulative costs by day 12 reaching $16.5 billion according to independent analyses. Daily expenditures hover near or above $1 billion, encompassing munitions (initially $5.6 billion in two days), combat losses, and operations. This doesn’t include long-term replacements for destroyed Patriot systems, aircraft, or infrastructure repairs. US casualties include at least eight service members killed, with Iranian claims of far higher figures underscoring the fog of war. Trump’s MAGA base, promised restraint from “forever wars” and endless foreign entanglements, now watches as the conflict undermines his core pitch. Gas prices have surged—diesel above $5 per gallon in places—the highest since 2023 inflation spikes that hurt his predecessor. Global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted, triggering the largest supply disruption in history, with European gas prices jumping over 30%.
Iran’s retaliation has cleverly targeted America’s vulnerabilities without direct confrontation on the battlefield. Missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal, Saudi refineries near Riyadh, and other Gulf energy sites—home to critical US military bases and business hubs—have inflicted billions in indirect damage. Qatar expelled Iranian diplomats; Saudi Arabia decried lost trust. These attacks, framed by Iran as responses to Israeli provocations on shared fields, have disrupted US alliances in the Gulf. Trump has threatened to “massively blow up” South Pars in retaliation but also urged de-escalation, signalling frustration. Meanwhile, broader fallout includes strained NATO ties—European leaders balk at securing the Strait of Hormuz—and rejection from allies like Japan and Australia. Trump has alienated Western partners and Gulf states alike, turning a targeted campaign into a regional economic crisis.
Trump personally bears the brunt. His credibility as the deal-making outsider who would prioritize American interests has evaporated. Once decrying “stupid” interventions, he now concedes the war’s unpredictability, leaning heavily on military options he once vowed to avoid. Domestic pressure mounts: progressive Democrats decry it as illegal; even some Republicans like Rep. Thomas Massie highlight the $10-per-family daily cost. Midterm elections loom as a reckoning. Economically, the war accelerates national debt spirals amid soaring energy prices, contradicting Trump’s growth agenda. Analysts note Trump’s shifting rhetoric— from unconditional surrender demands to hints of talks—reflects desperation for an exit Netanyahu resists.
The widening rift between the leaders crystallizes the trap. Trump insists operations align with goals like dismantling Iran’s navy and missiles, claiming progress without a “forever war.” Netanyahu’s camp pushes onward, viewing the conflict as an opportunity to reshape the region. US officials describe Trump as initially the most hawkish in the White House, yet now more eager to declare victory than his Israeli counterpart. Backchannel talks with Iran reportedly intensify, frustrating Jerusalem. As one analysis put it, they started the war together but may struggle to end it together.
Even if Iran “loses”—its nuclear program crippled, proxies weakened, leadership fractured—the real loser is the United States. Strategic gains pale against economic haemorrhage, ally estrangement, and political blowback. Iran’s asymmetric retaliation has globalized the pain: disrupted shipping, inflated energy costs hitting American wallets, and a empowered narrative of US overreach. Netanyahu saves face and expands influence at minimal direct cost to Israel; Trump inherits the crisis, his MAGA dream tarnished by a war he was maneuvered into embracing.
This 19-day ordeal exposes the perils of unchecked alliances and impulsive leadership. As costs mount and exits elude, America pays the price—not in quick oil victories, but in blood, treasure, and credibility. The trap snapped shut; extracting the US without further self-inflicted wounds will define Trump’s presidency.
