People by WTF by Nikhil Kamath Features Howard Marks on AI, Cycles, Luck, Leadership, and Why “You Can’t Predict, You Can Prepare”
Mumbai : WTF by Nikhil Kamath this week released a conversation with Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management and one of the most influential voices in global investing.
Across the episode, Marks speaks candidly about investing, leadership, intentionality, and the reality that most people spend their lives searching for certainty in systems built on uncertainty.
Reflecting on markets and predictions, Marks says, “I believe in strategy. What I really don’t believe in is predictions,” arguing that people often try to eliminate ambiguity by creating narratives about a future nobody can actually foresee. Instead, he believes preparation matters more than certainty.
The conversation also explores Marks’ long-standing thinking on cycles and investor psychology. According to him, cycles are driven less by economics and more by human behaviour — excess optimism, overbuilding, overspending, and the inevitable corrections that follow. “The norm is never the average,” he says, pointing to the reality that markets rarely behave in smooth or predictable ways.
On AI, Marks admits he has evolved from skepticism to curiosity. While acknowledging the scale and inevitability of the AI boom, he questions whether pattern recognition alone can replace human judgment in moments that are entirely new. “If what AI does is pattern matching, then how will it deal with something where there’s no pattern?” he asks.
For younger founders and operators, some of the most resonant moments come from Marks reflecting on his own life. He openly describes spending much of his early career “adrift,” allowing opportunities to guide him rather than making highly intentional choices. Starting Oaktree, he says, changed that completely. “Entrepreneurship is the epitome of intentionality.”
The episode also touches on ego, learning, and staying relevant with age. At 80, Marks still actively reads across subjects he knows nothing about, solves puzzles, and seeks out unfamiliar ideas. He describes learning not as a hobby, but as survival.
Speaking about the conversation, Nikhil Kamath said:
“What makes Howard fascinating is how honest he is about luck, timing, and uncertainty. He talks about being at the front of the line without pretending he always knew where the line was. In a world where everyone is trying to sound certain about AI, markets, or the future, that kind of honesty stands out.”
The episode further explores the father-son dynamic, generational learning, credit markets, second-level thinking, and the tension between experience and adaptability in modern leadership.
Marks ultimately describes investing as “a puzzle, a challenging puzzle” — one where there are no absolute formulas, no guaranteed outcomes, and no point where you are ever truly done learning.
